Saturday, 29 April 2017

Trade Blocs: Brexit




Referendum: June 2016.









52% to 48% in favour of leaving the EU.

At the time of the referendum there were 28 member countries (including the UK) and a single market of 500 million people.

Brexiteers:

Remoaners:



There was (and is) a lack of clarity of the impact of Brexit on the economy, business and trade.

The possible impact / advantages and disadvantages of Brexit depend on:

Who you ask.

The outcomes of the current negotiations between the UK government and EU representatives.



Any 'transitional' arrangements that are agreed.

Possibilities:


Brexit: What are the options?  Details here.


A 'hard Brexit'.



Hard Brexit is often used to mean the UK leaving the European Union without a new trade agreement in place at all.

Trade with Europe would be subject to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

Tariffs would be imposed on UK exports to the EU 27.

Possible tariffs on imports from the EU 27.

There would be no free movement of people.

A 'soft Brexit'.



Brexit in which the United Kingdom's relationship with the European Union is a close as possible to what it was before Brexit.

In a "soft Brexit", Britain would be out of the EU but would retain strong economic ties, make budgetary contributions, and allow free movement of people.

Brexiteers would agree with the statement about a soft Brexit in the graphic above.

Possible advantages of Brexit:




No UK government payments to the EU.

Brexit supporters were claiming a £350 million saving every week if we left.

The UK would be free to make trade deals with other important (China, The USA, India) countries without EU interference.

Controlled immigration from EU countries.

More jobs for British citizens.

Higher pay in some occupations such as construction.

Less regulation i.e. 'super vacuum cleaners'. Details here.

Britain could set its own tax rates such as VAT.

Possible disadvantages of Brexit:



Export tariffs, extra paperwork and border delays if we want to sell goods in EU countries.

This is important as 45% of British exports go to the EU.

Less FDI into the UK because of increased barriers to trade.

Less supply of workers would drive wages up.

Possible job losses as 1 in 10 UK jobs is said to be linked to trade with the EU.

The value of the pound has fallen since the referendum leading to higher prices for imported products.

The UK loses 'passporting' rights when selling financial services.
Details here.





Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EU. Details here.